Abstract

We hypothesize that the interannual variability of the Northeast Pacific Ocean circulation affects the latitude of landfall and migration speed of adult sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) returning to the Fraser River. The Ocean Surface Current Simulations (OSCURS) model was used to simulate the return migration paths of compass-orientated sockeye for two years: 1982, which had a weak Alaska Gyre circulation and low Northern Diversion Rate (defined as the percentage of sockeye returning around the north end of Vancouver Island instead of the south end); and 1983, with a strong circulation and high northern diversion rate. The majority of model sockeye made landfall further north in 1983 than in 1982. The difference in landfall between 1983 and 1982 depended on the migration start position, swim speed, direction of orientation, and migration start date. The currents assisted the shoreward migration of sockeye starting from south of 55o N and impeded the migration of sockeye starting from further north. The simulation results were consistent with our hypothesis and suggest that the effects of the Northeast Pacific currents must be included in sockeye migration models. We propose a conceptual model for the prediction of the Northern Diversion Rate that includes Blackbourn's (1987) temperature-displacement model, enhanced to include the effects of currents during the ocean phase of migration, and the use of two predictive formulas for the coastal phase of migration: the formula of Xie and Hsieh (1989) for sockeye approaching Vancouver Island directly from the ocean, and a yet-to-be-developed formula for sockeye approaching from within the Coastal Downwelling Domain directly to the north of Vancouver Island.